A decision support tool to stem revenue decline

For several quarters, an aviation brand’s continuous brand tracker had identified a gradual decline in performance, leading to significant declines in key metrics year-on-year. Their internal teams had a wealth of data about their passengers and revenue, but needed something with more predictive power to inform their next steps.

Forethought received three years of historical brand performance metrics, passenger numbers (PAX) and revenue data.

A mixture of autoregressive and harmonic models was used to estimate next-quarter forecasts of key metrics, and predicative models of survey metrics onto PAX, with forecasts of future revenue per PAX.

A bespoke decision support tool was developed and utilised to estimate changes to PAX and revenue because of changes in key brand metrics. The resulting forecasts predicted a continued decline in key brand metrics, therefore signalling declines in the following quarters’ revenue.

By validating the empirical link between brand metrics and revenue, we gave the client greater confidence in their allocation of resourcing to focus on specific levers identified to drive the brand performance, and to stem the forecasted decline in the following quarters’ revenue.