RETURN TO NORMALITY? A Pulse on USA Consumer Normality - Week 2

USA Normality Index: Americans are noticing the CV-19 progression with increasing concern.

Posted 30 Mar 2020
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The gravity of the Covid-19 crisis, has further intensified for Americans last week, and people’s sense of normality has further declined. With an increasing number of Americans now knowing someone diagnosed with the virus, their focus has shifted from the state of the economy to provide them with a sense of normality, to reflecting on the necessary restrictions on day to day to life and how this is impacting them. Understandably people’s sense of fear has increased; and the question is will this drive compliance with the civic duties required to self isolate and play a role in slowing the progression of the virus. Read on to observe the results of Week 2 of the USA Normality Index.

Last week Forethought launched a predictive indicator of when we might expect to see the green shoots of normality emerge. We are calling it the Normality Index. Forethought understands that our partners will want to re-establish normal patterns of business at the optimum time. By keeping an ongoing, quick to measure pulse on consumer sentiment, the Normality Index can inform brands when the American population will be most receptive to “normal” communications, informing strategy in the midst, and post-Coronavirus (COVID-19).

Forethought has devised a model of indicators that might be considered “normal”. We are expecting that our partners will draw on this data to establish correlations in their own transactional data, thus establishing a reliable non-financial lead indicator. It is somewhat experimental and speculative but it’s future focused and our effort to help us pinpoint the upturn in consumer sentiment. Each Monday morning for three months (and beyond if necessary) we will be keeping a pulse on Americans’ perceptions of normality.

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Recap from Week 1:
American consumers will not feel normal until:

  1. They feel confident in the economy
  2. They feel comfortable to be out in public
  3. They are able to attend school/college/work as usual
  4. They are able to socialize with friends and family

WHAT’S NORMAL? Index numbers across indicators of normality.
The higher the index number the more normal. Index benchmark is 100%.

Thinking about life at present (including wider society), how do you feel the following aspects are?

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Americans judged the ability to socialize with friends and family inside the home (50%, down from 63%) and access to healthcare (61%, down from 69%) to be considerably worse than last week
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Looking forward 3 1024x586
Returning to normal 1024x760

Week 3 results available Monday April 6, 2020


Access the Nomality Index data below

Download Data